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Treasury Hub Markets Bulletin - Q1 2024 Review 1.03 MB

Welcome to the 2024 Q1 version of THE TREASURY HUB Markets Bulletin.• The focus of markets in the first quarter was very much on inflation and its impact on the expected timing of interest rate cuts. While the consensus was that Central Banks had stalled their tightening of interest rates with the focus firmly on the timing (and number of) rate cuts, the number of cuts expected in 2024 has decreased as the year has progressed. • 3-month Euribor has remained in a relatively tight range around 3.90%, but it is unlikely that this will move in a material way until the ECB implements its first rate cut. • EUR, UK and US yield curves continue to be inverted (i.e. rates decline after 1 year) but the past few days have seen an upward shift in such curves, especially in the US, on the back of inflation figures that look static. • Oil prices were on the rise again in Q1 (mainly due to an improving economic outlook). • Stock markets had a much better start to the year than previously anticipated, with the major US tech stocks, for the most part, releasing strong 2023 financial results. • Both USD and GBP continued to trade in a remarkably tight range against EUR. • Gold has had a record run to new heights over the first quarter. • S.5 in this Bulletin takes a look back at the 2023 Irish Bank Results.

The Treasury Hub - Autumn 2023 1.04 MB

Welcome to the Autumn 2023 edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking Markets Bulletin.

The Treasury Hub - Summer 2023 867.64 KB

Welcome to the summer 2023 edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking Markets Bulletin.

The Treasury Hub - May 22 909.18 KB

Welcome to the fifth edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin of 2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to impact on financial markets but there is a lot of volatility in other areas also since our bulletin last month:• Inflation is still a hot topic • Interest rates have steadied somewhat after a sustained period of increasing • Energy prices remain stubbornly high • FX rates have also bounced around a lot with USD making significant gains • Crypto currencies have taken a bashing • Tech stocks have also suffered more than most other sectors in 2022 • An oil company (Saudi Aramco) replaced Apple as the world’s largest company by market cap…. who said fossil fuels are a thing of the past?We have warned for some time in this bulletin that the key inflation metric to watch is food inflation given the impact of it on everyone and we see it as the main driver of wages hike pressures. Consumer habits will also change as a result and discretionary spend is already taking a hit with subscriptions to the likes of Netflix and Peloton being adversely impacted.Last month we stated that from a risk management perspective, it looks like the most volatile period in markets, financial and otherwise, since 2008 and, in some cases, since the 1970s. This is a view that we continue to hold.

The Treasury Hub - April 22 1020.11 KB

Welcome to the fourth edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin of 2022. This Bulletin represents a review of the first quarter of 2022 and in Section 5, we have a look at the implications of rising interest rates.The invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to dominate financial markets along with inflationary pressures. The latter were already building before the invasion but have moved higher due to increasing energy prices in particular. While Oil prices remain high, Brent Crude has eased back to $108/barrel. There has however, been large volatility experienced in other commodity markets e.g. gas and nickel.Consumer confidence also seems to be taking a hit while faster and larger interest rate hikes are now increasingly mentioned due to the highest levels of inflation in decades. All of this is against a backdrop of a possible slowdown in economic activity, which can have a “double negative” impact on businesses: higher costs and lower sales/profits. In this scenario, financial covenant compliance in any loan agreements suddenly take on significance – see Section 5 for further analysis. From a risk management perspective, it looks like the most volatile period in markets, financial and otherwise, since 2008 and, in some cases, since the 1970s.

Treasury Hub - March 22 1.35 MB

Welcome to the March edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin. In this edition we review the past month and, in Section 5, we take a look at the 2021 results of the three main banks. The past few weeks have been dominated by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The resultant loss of life, physical destruction of the country and creation of a huge refugee crisis in Europe almost seems unimaginable. Talking about financial and economic matters is trite against that backdrop, but the event has and will have an impact on all of our lives to varying degrees in the weeks and months ahead. The impact of the crisis has been immediate in two areas: food and energy. Oil has jumped in price with Brent Crude hitting almost $140/barrel last week. Wheat has jumped from $850 to $1,252 in just over a week on the CBOT. And all of this will feed into inflation, slowing economic growth whilst also creating a dilemma for central banks and interest rate management. Adding the cost of the refugee crisis to the mix and assisting, hopefully, in the resolution of the conflict and the rebuilding of Ukraine, and 2022/23 will be challenging.